How did the peace processes between armed organizations and goverments in different places around the globe proceed in 2015? In Turkey the peace negotiations between PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan and the so-called Imralı committee have been terminated by President Erdoğan, even though they had been authorized by Erdoğan and the AKP goverment. We bring to your attention a compilation of the 2015 Peace Processes Report, prepared by Vicenç Fisas, Director of the School for a Culture of Peace.
The practice of calling upon negotiations in an armed conflict now has a solid basis on which to work. Within the last thirty years, more than 50 conflicts with armed groups have been successfully negotiated, allowing us to learn the art of negotiating contemporary conflicts, although each case is distinct with its unique personality and character differentiating it from others. There are a number of factors affecting the way each of these conflicts are dealt with and knowing these factors might be helpful for those who have the desire to enter the world of negotiations. Negotiating is the best way to manage and transform an armed conflict to put an end to violence and produce agreements that satisfactorily responds to a great part of the needs of the conflicting parties.
What are the minimal conditions for initiating negotiations? Basically, four questions are involved: recognizing the fact that there is a conflict (or that there is a shared conflict); recognizing the other party (the adversary); a firm will to resolve the armed conflict via non-armed means (and an agreement that it cannot be realized without a negotiation); and sharing what we call the “meta-conflict,” meaning that we can define the essential nature of the conflict (to know and share what we have at hand, what “the sickness” is about). If there is an agreement on these four points, the process can be initiated and an adequate methodology can be designed.
Similar to the previous years, 2015 was also witness to the termination of some armed conflicts and advancement of diverse negotiations. The basic conclusions of what happened during the year can be summarized as follows:
- During the year, four armed conflicts came to an end: Sudan (Darfur) SLM-MM, Mali (CMA-Platform), Ethiopia (Tigray People’s Democratic Movement, TPDM), and South Sudan.
- In four conflicts there were exploratory steps towards the opening of a formal negotiating process in Colombia (ELN), Pakistan (Balochistan), China (Tibet) and Syria.
- 15.4 % of the negotiations went well or were resolved, 33.3 % had difficulties, and 43.6 failed.
- In 70% of the existing conflicts there was some form of contact, talks or negotiations.
- Of the 117 conflicts analysed from the past 35 years, 40.2% ended with a peace agreement. Another 47.9% are still unresolved.
- Of the 61 conflicts that ended over the same period, 77% did so through a peace agreement, and 16.4% through the military victory of one of the parties. The culture of negotiation is now a reality.
- Of the 61 conflicts that have now ended, around 32% lasted less than five years, and 53.2% less than ten years. The trend is towards conflicts being negotiated as early as possible.
- Since the establishment of the Rome Statute of 1998, which established the International Criminal Court (ICC), a total of 24 countries, 16 of which had signed that statute, have had peace agreements with a total of 84 armed groups, of which 50 corresponded to countries that had signed the Rome Statute. The ICC has only intervened in one case among the countries that have signed a peace agreement (DR Congo-MLC), while an “ad hoc” tribunal for Sierra Leone arrested three people from an armed group (RUF), bringing the total affected to eight people from the armed groups from these two countries. In none of the other cases, without exception, have people demobilised after a peace agreement been subjected to convictions involving their entry into prison. The usual pattern is one of amnesty for demobilised groups, and non-interference by the ICC.
- 81.2% of the processes analysed included the mediation of third parties.
- Only 30% of armed conflicts were considered worthy of a Security Council resolution. In the cases where there had been exploration, talks or formal negotiations, 34.4% of them had been dealt with in some Security Council resolution.
